JANEWAY

Just A Neutral Engine With Autonomous Yield

Status
active
Version
v1
Trades
7
Signal Book/thirteen_f
Signal
thirteen_f

Follows new stock purchases by elite fund managers

Large investment funds must report their stock holdings every 90 days on a form called 13F. When a hand-picked group of top managers — like Berkshire Hathaway or Pershing Square — adds a big new position, this signal follows them. Only their highest-conviction bets count (≥1% of their portfolio).

Trailing 90d Attribution
— no data yet

Kill Criteria

MIN TRADES FOR EVAL
7/40
DRAWDOWN VS CAP
—
SHARPE VS MIN
—
HIT RATE VS MIN
—
— awaiting evidence (7/40 trades; metrics hidden until threshold met)

Alpha Decay Monitor

insufficient_dataas of 2026-05-10
Baseline Sharpe
0.50
Realized 30d Sharpe
—
Realized 90d Sharpe
—
Closed trades
0/30

Not enough closed trades yet to evaluate decay. Threshold is 30 closed trades; until then this card tracks accumulation rather than judgment.

Mechanism (Technical)

Elite fund managers (defined by a multi-year track record of risk-adjusted outperformance) spend substantially more on research per holding than the market-average investor. 13F filings expose their long book with a ~45-day lag. Academic work (Coval & Moskowitz 1999; Cohen, Polk, Silli 2010 'Best Ideas') documents that managers' top-conviction positions outperform their broader book. Our implementation restricts to 'best idea'-proxy events: new positions >1% of portfolio, or increases >50% in size, from a pre-vetted manager list.

Sizing

Method
fixed_notional
Base Notional
$300
Normal
1×
High Vol
0.5×
Crisis
0.25×

Recent Trades

7 shown
  1. 2026-05-15 20:49:18 UTCMSFTBUY$300.0000SUBMITTED

    13F smart-money: Pershing Square Capital (Bill Ackman) opened NEW position in MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT) at $2,092,970,053 = 15.26% of their filed portfolio. Filed for period 2026-03-31.

  2. 2026-05-15 20:49:18 UTCDALBUY$300.0000SUBMITTED

    13F smart-money: Berkshire Hathaway opened NEW position in DELTA AIR LINES INC (DAL) at $2,646,532,635 = 1.01% of their filed portfolio. Filed for period 2026-03-31.

  3. 2026-05-14 20:57:14 UTCNCLHBUY$300.0000SUBMITTED

    13F smart-money: Baupost Group (Seth Klarman) opened NEW position in NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE HLDGS (NCLH) at $67,881 = 1.33% of their filed portfolio. Filed for period 2026-03-31.

  4. 2026-05-14 20:57:14 UTCVBUY$300.0000SUBMITTED

    13F smart-money: Baupost Group (Seth Klarman) opened NEW position in VISA INC (V) at $211,978 = 4.14% of their filed portfolio. Filed for period 2026-03-31.

  5. 2026-05-14 20:57:14 UTCAONBUY$300.0000SUBMITTED

    13F smart-money: Baupost Group (Seth Klarman) opened NEW position in AON PLC (AON) at $248,218 = 4.85% of their filed portfolio. Filed for period 2026-03-31.

  6. 2026-04-24 20:47:50 UTCMETABUY$300.0000FILLED

    Followed top-conviction 13F new position addition (manager + filing detail from EDGAR; signal v1)

  7. 2026-04-24 20:47:50 UTCAMZNBUY$300.0000FILLED

    Followed top-conviction 13F new position addition (manager + filing detail from EDGAR; signal v1)

Lifecycle Events

2 events
  1. 2026-04-23 18:53:01 UTCRESUMEDtransition: proposed→active
  2. 2026-04-23 18:53:00 UTCFIREDtransition: none→proposedcontract_path: /Users/joshuagafni/Documents/Janeway/Repositories.nosync/janeway/signals/thirteen_f.yamlcontract_version: 1

References