JANEWAY

Just A Neutral Engine With Autonomous Yield

Status
active
Version
v1
Trades
50
Signal Book/pead
Signal
pead

Buys companies that just beat earnings expectations

When a company reports earnings well above Wall Street's forecast, investors tend to under-react: the stock drifts upward for 30–60 days as analysts slowly revise their models. This is called the Post-Earnings Announcement Drift and has been documented since 1968. This signal catches that drift after strong earnings beats.

Trailing 90d Attribution
— no data yet

Kill Criteria

MIN TRADES FOR EVAL
50/50
DRAWDOWN VS CAP
—
SHARPE VS MIN
—
HIT RATE VS MIN
—

Alpha Decay Monitor

insufficient_dataas of 2026-05-10
Baseline Sharpe
0.60
Realized 30d Sharpe
—
Realized 90d Sharpe
—
Closed trades
0/30

Not enough closed trades yet to evaluate decay. Threshold is 30 closed trades; until then this card tracks accumulation rather than judgment.

Mechanism (Technical)

PEAD is one of the most persistently documented anomalies in equity markets (Ball & Brown 1968; Bernard & Thomas 1989, 1990). The behavioral explanation is that analysts and investors under-react to earnings surprises and revise slowly. Despite being known for 50+ years, the anomaly has not fully arbitraged away — it persists especially in smaller caps and in stocks with high analyst-forecast dispersion pre-earnings. Our restriction to dual beats (EPS AND revenue) filters out 'managed' beats from revenue misses, which decay faster.

Sizing

Method
fixed_notional
Base Notional
$200
Normal
1×
High Vol
0.5×
Crisis
0.25×

Recent Trades

50 shown
  1. 2026-06-05 21:14:49 UTCBBCPBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: BBCP reported earnings 2026-06-04 with 500.00% EPS surprise (actual 0.06 vs est 0.01). Market cap $526,824,576, sector Industrials.

  2. 2026-06-05 21:14:49 UTCAGXBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AGX reported earnings 2026-06-04 with 38.87% EPS surprise (actual 3.24 vs est 2.33). Market cap $9,698,614,272, sector Industrials.

  3. 2026-06-04 21:13:42 UTCAIBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AI reported earnings 2026-06-03 with 11.47% EPS surprise (actual -0.33 vs est -0.37). Market cap $1,537,181,056, sector Technology.

  4. 2026-05-29 21:21:13 UTCASANBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ASAN reported earnings 2026-05-28 with 33.24% EPS surprise (actual 0.1 vs est 0.08). Market cap $1,833,278,080, sector Technology.

  5. 2026-05-29 21:21:13 UTCAMBABUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AMBA reported earnings 2026-05-28 with 5.42% EPS surprise (actual 0.11 vs est 0.1). Market cap $3,165,922,048, sector Technology.

  6. 2026-05-29 21:21:13 UTCAEOBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AEO reported earnings 2026-05-28 with 15.63% EPS surprise (actual 0.14 vs est 0.12). Market cap $2,646,925,568, sector Consumer Cyclical.

  7. 2026-05-28 21:23:21 UTCANFBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ANF reported earnings 2026-05-27 with 15.26% EPS surprise (actual 1.47 vs est 1.28). Market cap $3,691,893,248, sector Consumer Cyclical.

  8. 2026-05-28 21:23:21 UTCAMSCBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AMSC reported earnings 2026-05-27 with 55.18% EPS surprise (actual 0.3 vs est 0.19). Market cap $2,443,938,560, sector Industrials.

  9. 2026-05-27 21:18:32 UTCAPPSBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: APPS reported earnings 2026-05-26 with 88.24% EPS surprise (actual 0.16 vs est 0.09). Market cap $800,931,520, sector Technology.

  10. 2026-05-21 21:12:52 UTCASPIBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ASPI reported earnings 2026-05-20 with 82.14% EPS surprise (actual -0.05 vs est -0.28). Market cap $650,920,832, sector Basic Materials.

  11. 2026-05-19 21:09:26 UTCAGYSBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AGYS reported earnings 2026-05-18 with 26.72% EPS surprise (actual 0.63 vs est 0.5). Market cap $2,218,865,152, sector Technology.

  12. 2026-05-13 21:12:10 UTCALHBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ALH reported earnings 2026-05-12 with 16.81% EPS surprise (actual 0.31 vs est 0.27). Market cap $4,979,719,680, sector Consumer Cyclical.

  13. 2026-05-12 21:10:26 UTCBETABUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: BETA reported earnings 2026-05-12 with 14.24% EPS surprise (actual -0.53 vs est -0.62). Market cap $4,315,913,728, sector Industrials.

  14. 2026-05-12 21:10:25 UTCBATRKBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: BATRK reported earnings 2026-05-11 with 21.25% EPS surprise (actual -0.63 vs est -0.8). Market cap $3,176,280,064, sector Communication Services.

  15. 2026-05-12 21:10:25 UTCAPEIBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: APEI reported earnings 2026-05-11 with 50.00% EPS surprise (actual 0.94 vs est 0.63). Market cap $975,791,168, sector Consumer Defensive.

  16. 2026-05-12 21:10:25 UTCACHRBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ACHR reported earnings 2026-05-11 with 9.85% EPS surprise (actual -0.28 vs est -0.31). Market cap $4,853,831,168, sector Industrials.

  17. 2026-05-08 20:56:07 UTCAVPTBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AVPT reported earnings 2026-05-07 with 20.00% EPS surprise (actual 0.1 vs est 0.08). Market cap $2,461,929,216, sector Technology.

  18. 2026-05-08 20:56:07 UTCASTHBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ASTH reported earnings 2026-05-07 with 13.85% EPS surprise (actual 0.74 vs est 0.65). Market cap $2,189,541,888, sector Healthcare.

  19. 2026-05-08 20:56:07 UTCASCBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ASC reported earnings 2026-05-07 with 8.41% EPS surprise (actual 0.58 vs est 0.54). Market cap $796,875,136, sector Industrials.

  20. 2026-05-08 20:56:07 UTCARLOBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ARLO reported earnings 2026-05-07 with 42.37% EPS surprise (actual 0.28 vs est 0.2). Market cap $1,661,624,960, sector Industrials.

  21. 2026-05-08 20:56:07 UTCARKOBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ARKO reported earnings 2026-05-07 with 56.25% EPS surprise (actual -0.07 vs est -0.16). Market cap $770,702,016, sector Consumer Cyclical.

  22. 2026-05-08 20:56:06 UTCARHSBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ARHS reported earnings 2026-05-07 with 19.98% EPS surprise (actual 0.02 vs est 0.02). Market cap $920,718,144, sector Consumer Cyclical.

  23. 2026-05-08 20:56:06 UTCAPPNBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: APPN reported earnings 2026-05-07 with 46.08% EPS surprise (actual 0.27 vs est 0.18). Market cap $1,630,038,528, sector Technology.

  24. 2026-05-08 20:56:06 UTCAORTBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AORT reported earnings 2026-05-07 with 14.29% EPS surprise (actual 0.03 vs est 0.03). Market cap $1,232,283,136, sector Healthcare.

  25. 2026-05-08 20:56:06 UTCAMRXBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AMRX reported earnings 2026-05-07 with 59.62% EPS surprise (actual 0.27 vs est 0.17). Market cap $4,210,824,960, sector Healthcare.

  26. 2026-05-08 20:56:06 UTCAMNBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AMN reported earnings 2026-05-07 with 29.87% EPS surprise (actual 2.1 vs est 1.62). Market cap $1,119,871,360, sector Healthcare.

  27. 2026-05-08 20:56:06 UTCALRMBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ALRM reported earnings 2026-05-07 with 7.62% EPS surprise (actual 0.65 vs est 0.6). Market cap $2,351,396,352, sector Technology.

  28. 2026-05-08 20:56:06 UTCACIWBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ACIW reported earnings 2026-05-07 with 22.82% EPS surprise (actual 0.61 vs est 0.5). Market cap $4,612,434,944, sector Technology.

  29. 2026-05-07 20:59:24 UTCBCRXBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: BCRX reported earnings 2026-05-06 with 27.68% EPS surprise (actual 0.14 vs est 0.11). Market cap $2,261,542,400, sector Healthcare.

  30. 2026-05-07 20:59:24 UTCBCOBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: BCO reported earnings 2026-05-06 with 12.97% EPS surprise (actual 1.8 vs est 1.59). Market cap $4,437,210,112, sector Industrials.

  31. 2026-05-07 20:59:24 UTCBBSIBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: BBSI reported earnings 2026-05-06 with 13.33% EPS surprise (actual -0.13 vs est -0.15). Market cap $734,333,440, sector Industrials.

  32. 2026-05-07 20:59:24 UTCARRYBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: ARRY reported earnings 2026-05-06 with 218.44% EPS surprise (actual 0.06 vs est -0.05). Market cap $1,254,962,944, sector Technology.

  33. 2026-05-07 20:59:24 UTCAPABUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: APA reported earnings 2026-05-06 with 20.90% EPS surprise (actual 1.38 vs est 1.14). Market cap $12,807,231,488, sector Energy.

  34. 2026-05-07 20:59:24 UTCAOSLBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: AOSL reported earnings 2026-05-06 with 22.22% EPS surprise (actual -0.28 vs est -0.36). Market cap $1,114,245,248, sector Technology.

  35. 2026-05-07 20:59:24 UTCALBBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: ALB reported earnings 2026-05-06 with 124.60% EPS surprise (actual 2.95 vs est 1.31). Market cap $23,382,865,920, sector Basic Materials.

  36. 2026-05-07 20:59:24 UTCAGLBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: AGL reported earnings 2026-05-06 with 37.12% EPS surprise (actual 1.14 vs est 0.83). Market cap $1,010,584,640, sector Healthcare.

  37. 2026-05-07 20:59:24 UTCACVABUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: ACVA reported earnings 2026-05-06 with 32.44% EPS surprise (actual 0.04 vs est 0.03). Market cap $1,192,722,048, sector Consumer Cyclical.

  38. 2026-05-06 21:03:08 UTCAVNSBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: AVNS reported earnings 2026-05-05 with 57.14% EPS surprise (actual 0.22 vs est 0.14). Market cap $1,153,785,472, sector Healthcare.

  39. 2026-05-06 21:03:08 UTCAVABUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: AVA reported earnings 2026-05-05 with 8.26% EPS surprise (actual 1.11 vs est 1.03). Market cap $3,353,467,648, sector Utilities.

  40. 2026-05-06 21:03:07 UTCARDTBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: ARDT reported earnings 2026-05-05 with 68.17% EPS surprise (actual 0.3 vs est 0.18). Market cap $1,340,806,400, sector Healthcare.

  41. 2026-05-06 21:03:07 UTCANDEBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: ANDE reported earnings 2026-05-05 with 60.00% EPS surprise (actual 1.12 vs est 0.7). Market cap $2,323,467,520, sector Consumer Defensive.

  42. 2026-05-06 21:03:07 UTCALKSBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: ALKS reported earnings 2026-05-05 with 1053.00% EPS surprise (actual 0.38 vs est -0.04). Market cap $5,886,075,904, sector Healthcare.

  43. 2026-05-06 21:03:06 UTCALITBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: ALIT reported earnings 2026-05-05 with 35.90% EPS surprise (actual 0.06 vs est 0.04). Market cap $512,313,440, sector Technology.

  44. 2026-05-06 21:03:06 UTCAESBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: AES reported earnings 2026-05-05 with 108.27% EPS surprise (actual 0.77 vs est 0.37). Market cap $10,225,446,912, sector Utilities.

  45. 2026-05-06 21:03:05 UTCADPTBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: ADPT reported earnings 2026-05-05 with 20.18% EPS surprise (actual -0.13 vs est -0.16). Market cap $2,305,346,560, sector Healthcare.

  46. 2026-05-06 21:03:05 UTCADNTBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: ADNT reported earnings 2026-05-06 with 17.99% EPS surprise (actual 0.52 vs est 0.44). Market cap $1,748,573,568, sector Consumer Cyclical.

  47. 2026-05-06 21:03:05 UTCACELBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: ACEL reported earnings 2026-05-05 with 11.55% EPS surprise (actual 0.27 vs est 0.25). Market cap $927,487,808, sector Consumer Cyclical.

  48. 2026-05-05 20:56:30 UTCBCCBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: BCC reported earnings 2026-05-04 with 17.19% EPS surprise (actual 0.5 vs est 0.43). Market cap $2,586,315,008, sector Basic Materials.

  49. 2026-05-05 20:56:30 UTCATKRBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: ATKR reported earnings 2026-05-05 with 22.86% EPS surprise (actual 1.23 vs est 1.0). Market cap $2,578,198,016, sector Industrials.

  50. 2026-05-05 20:56:29 UTCAPTVBUY$200.0000FILLED

    PEAD: APTV reported earnings 2026-05-05 with 7.91% EPS surprise (actual 1.71 vs est 1.58). Market cap $13,770,340,352, sector Consumer Cyclical.

Lifecycle Events

2 events
  1. 2026-04-23 19:08:47 UTCRESUMEDtransition: proposed→active
  2. 2026-04-23 19:08:46 UTCFIREDtransition: none→proposedcontract_path: /Users/joshuagafni/Documents/Janeway/Repositories.nosync/janeway/signals/pead.yamlcontract_version: 1

References