JANEWAY

Just A Neutral Engine With Autonomous Yield

Status
active
Version
v1
Trades
50
Signal Book/pead
Signal
pead

Buys companies that just beat earnings expectations

When a company reports earnings well above Wall Street's forecast, investors tend to under-react: the stock drifts upward for 30–60 days as analysts slowly revise their models. This is called the Post-Earnings Announcement Drift and has been documented since 1968. This signal catches that drift after strong earnings beats.

Trailing 90d Attribution
— no data yet

Kill Criteria

MIN TRADES FOR EVAL
50/50
DRAWDOWN VS CAP
NaN%
SHARPE VS MIN
NaN
HIT RATE VS MIN
NaN%

Alpha Decay Monitor

insufficient_dataas of 2026-05-10
Baseline Sharpe
0.60
Realized 30d Sharpe
—
Realized 90d Sharpe
—
Closed trades
0/30

Not enough closed trades yet to evaluate decay. Threshold is 30 closed trades; until then this card tracks accumulation rather than judgment.

Mechanism (Technical)

PEAD is one of the most persistently documented anomalies in equity markets (Ball & Brown 1968; Bernard & Thomas 1989, 1990). The behavioral explanation is that analysts and investors under-react to earnings surprises and revise slowly. Despite being known for 50+ years, the anomaly has not fully arbitraged away — it persists especially in smaller caps and in stocks with high analyst-forecast dispersion pre-earnings. Our restriction to dual beats (EPS AND revenue) filters out 'managed' beats from revenue misses, which decay faster.

Sizing

Method
fixed_notional
Base Notional
$200
Normal
1×
High Vol
0.5×
Crisis
0.25×

Recent Trades

50 shown
  1. 2026-08-29 02:59:41 UTCBBYBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: BBY reported earnings 2026-08-27 with 6.53% EPS surprise (actual 1.47 vs est 1.38). Market cap $17,375,641,600, sector Consumer Cyclical.

  2. 2026-08-13 21:20:54 UTCAVAHBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AVAH reported earnings 2026-08-13 with 31.59% EPS surprise (actual 0.22 vs est 0.17). Market cap $2,458,456,320, sector Healthcare.

  3. 2026-08-12 21:24:20 UTCATROBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ATRO reported earnings 2026-08-11 with 15.15% EPS surprise (actual 0.7 vs est 0.61). Market cap $4,337,231,360, sector Industrials.

  4. 2026-08-12 21:24:20 UTCATEXBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ATEX reported earnings 2026-08-11 with 106.05% EPS surprise (actual 0.01 vs est -0.17). Market cap $1,731,464,320, sector Communication Services.

  5. 2026-08-12 21:24:19 UTCAQSTBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AQST reported earnings 2026-08-11 with 45.67% EPS surprise (actual -0.07 vs est -0.12). Market cap $530,725,376, sector Healthcare.

  6. 2026-08-11 21:21:41 UTCAMBQBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AMBQ reported earnings 2026-08-11 with 72.78% EPS surprise (actual -0.07 vs est -0.26). Market cap $1,576,455,680, sector Technology.

  7. 2026-08-07 21:16:58 UTCAWRBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AWR reported earnings 2026-08-05 with 17.20% EPS surprise (actual 1.09 vs est 0.93). Market cap $3,463,757,056, sector Utilities.

  8. 2026-08-07 21:16:57 UTCAVNTBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AVNT reported earnings 2026-08-06 with 7.73% EPS surprise (actual 0.96 vs est 0.89). Market cap $4,190,237,440, sector Basic Materials.

  9. 2026-08-07 21:16:57 UTCATOBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ATO reported earnings 2026-08-05 with 5.60% EPS surprise (actual 1.43 vs est 1.35). Market cap $28,760,164,352, sector Utilities.

  10. 2026-08-07 21:16:57 UTCATMUBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ATMU reported earnings 2026-08-07 with 5.25% EPS surprise (actual 0.82 vs est 0.78). Market cap $4,179,178,240, sector Consumer Cyclical.

  11. 2026-08-07 21:16:55 UTCANIPBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ANIP reported earnings 2026-08-07 with 8.22% EPS surprise (actual 2.21 vs est 2.04). Market cap $1,778,983,808, sector Healthcare.

  12. 2026-08-07 21:16:55 UTCAMPHBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AMPH reported earnings 2026-08-06 with 48.26% EPS surprise (actual 0.91 vs est 0.61). Market cap $916,250,880, sector Healthcare.

  13. 2026-08-07 21:16:54 UTCALNTBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ALNT reported earnings 2026-08-05 with 30.58% EPS surprise (actual 0.8 vs est 0.61). Market cap $1,917,376,512, sector Technology.

  14. 2026-08-07 21:16:54 UTCAHRBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AHR reported earnings 2026-08-06 with 11.48% EPS surprise (actual 0.15 vs est 0.14). Market cap $11,729,424,384, sector Real Estate.

  15. 2026-08-07 21:16:54 UTCACMRBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ACMR reported earnings 2026-08-07 with 81.19% EPS surprise (actual 0.61 vs est 0.34). Market cap $5,791,375,360, sector Technology.

  16. 2026-08-07 21:16:54 UTCACLSBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ACLS reported earnings 2026-08-06 with 18.57% EPS surprise (actual 1.06 vs est 0.89). Market cap $4,311,043,584, sector Technology.

  17. 2026-08-07 21:16:54 UTCAAOIBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AAOI reported earnings 2026-08-06 with 300.00% EPS surprise (actual 0.06 vs est 0.02). Market cap $10,883,326,976, sector Technology.

  18. 2026-08-07 01:04:09 UTCAZTABUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AZTA reported earnings 2026-08-04 with 60.00% EPS surprise (actual 0.16 vs est 0.1). Market cap $1,416,892,800, sector Healthcare.

  19. 2026-08-07 01:04:08 UTCALGTBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ALGT reported earnings 2026-08-04 with 72.85% EPS surprise (actual 2.19 vs est 1.27). Market cap $2,611,552,256, sector Industrials.

  20. 2026-08-04 21:54:40 UTCAESIBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AESI reported earnings 2026-08-03 with 220.22% EPS surprise (actual 0.11 vs est -0.09). Market cap $1,365,218,048, sector Energy.

  21. 2026-07-31 21:43:00 UTCBDCBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: BDC reported earnings 2026-07-30 with 15.73% EPS surprise (actual 2.34 vs est 2.02). Market cap $4,831,008,256, sector Technology.

  22. 2026-07-31 21:42:59 UTCBBUCBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: BBUC reported earnings 2026-07-31 with 117.83% EPS surprise (actual 1.0 vs est 0.46). Market cap $6,118,376,960, sector Industrials.

  23. 2026-07-31 21:42:58 UTCAVYBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AVY reported earnings 2026-07-30 with 17.00% EPS surprise (actual 2.89 vs est 2.47). Market cap $12,982,712,320, sector Consumer Cyclical.

  24. 2026-07-31 21:42:58 UTCABRBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ABR reported earnings 2026-07-31 with 257.14% EPS surprise (actual 0.1 vs est 0.03). Market cap $1,044,742,464, sector Real Estate.

  25. 2026-07-30 21:49:44 UTCBBNXBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: BBNX reported earnings 2026-07-29 with 35.09% EPS surprise (actual -0.36 vs est -0.56). Market cap $635,895,424, sector Healthcare.

  26. 2026-07-30 21:49:43 UTCAOSBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AOS reported earnings 2026-07-30 with 11.48% EPS surprise (actual 1.03 vs est 0.92). Market cap $8,243,530,240, sector Industrials.

  27. 2026-07-29 21:31:30 UTCAKRBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AKR reported earnings 2026-07-28 with 68.25% EPS surprise (actual 0.07 vs est 0.04). Market cap $3,280,421,120, sector Real Estate.

  28. 2026-07-28 21:42:24 UTCAPLDBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: APLD reported earnings 2026-07-27 with 121.05% EPS surprise (actual 0.04 vs est -0.19). Market cap $7,607,185,408, sector Technology.

  29. 2026-07-28 21:42:24 UTCABGBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ABG reported earnings 2026-07-28 with 8.13% EPS surprise (actual 6.82 vs est 6.31). Market cap $4,486,944,768, sector Consumer Cyclical.

  30. 2026-07-24 21:42:02 UTCATRCBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ATRC reported earnings 2026-07-23 with 650.31% EPS surprise (actual 0.18 vs est 0.02). Market cap $1,774,459,520, sector Healthcare.

  31. 2026-07-23 21:41:57 UTCAMBPBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AMBP reported earnings 2026-07-23 with 44.79% EPS surprise (actual 0.06 vs est 0.04). Market cap $2,821,173,504, sector Consumer Cyclical.

  32. 2026-07-23 21:41:56 UTCALLEBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ALLE reported earnings 2026-07-23 with 8.29% EPS surprise (actual 2.4 vs est 2.22). Market cap $13,283,106,816, sector Industrials.

  33. 2026-07-22 21:42:36 UTCAIRBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AIR reported earnings 2026-07-21 with 10.53% EPS surprise (actual 1.53 vs est 1.38). Market cap $5,073,920,512, sector Industrials.

  34. 2026-07-20 21:47:53 UTCAMCBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AMC reported earnings 2026-07-20 with 366.67% EPS surprise (actual 0.14 vs est 0.03). Market cap $2,195,807,488, sector Communication Services.

  35. 2026-07-15 20:55:17 UTCANGOBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ANGO reported earnings 2026-07-14 with 22.22% EPS surprise (actual -0.07 vs est -0.09). Market cap $597,884,736, sector Healthcare.

  36. 2026-07-15 20:55:17 UTCAEHRBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AEHR reported earnings 2026-07-14 with 1566.67% EPS surprise (actual 0.11 vs est -0.01). Market cap $2,761,281,280, sector Technology.

  37. 2026-06-30 21:16:26 UTCAVAVBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AVAV reported earnings 2026-06-29 with 25.01% EPS surprise (actual 1.84 vs est 1.47). Market cap $8,353,379,840, sector Industrials.

  38. 2026-06-15 21:39:56 UTCAIOTBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AIOT reported earnings 2026-06-15 with 77.78% EPS surprise (actual 0.04 vs est 0.02). Market cap $555,369,728, sector Technology.

  39. 2026-06-05 21:14:49 UTCBBCPBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: BBCP reported earnings 2026-06-04 with 500.00% EPS surprise (actual 0.06 vs est 0.01). Market cap $526,824,576, sector Industrials.

  40. 2026-06-05 21:14:49 UTCAGXBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AGX reported earnings 2026-06-04 with 38.87% EPS surprise (actual 3.24 vs est 2.33). Market cap $9,698,614,272, sector Industrials.

  41. 2026-06-04 21:13:42 UTCAIBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AI reported earnings 2026-06-03 with 11.47% EPS surprise (actual -0.33 vs est -0.37). Market cap $1,537,181,056, sector Technology.

  42. 2026-05-29 21:21:13 UTCASANBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ASAN reported earnings 2026-05-28 with 33.24% EPS surprise (actual 0.1 vs est 0.08). Market cap $1,833,278,080, sector Technology.

  43. 2026-05-29 21:21:13 UTCAMBABUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AMBA reported earnings 2026-05-28 with 5.42% EPS surprise (actual 0.11 vs est 0.1). Market cap $3,165,922,048, sector Technology.

  44. 2026-05-29 21:21:13 UTCAEOBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AEO reported earnings 2026-05-28 with 15.63% EPS surprise (actual 0.14 vs est 0.12). Market cap $2,646,925,568, sector Consumer Cyclical.

  45. 2026-05-28 21:23:21 UTCANFBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ANF reported earnings 2026-05-27 with 15.26% EPS surprise (actual 1.47 vs est 1.28). Market cap $3,691,893,248, sector Consumer Cyclical.

  46. 2026-05-28 21:23:21 UTCAMSCBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AMSC reported earnings 2026-05-27 with 55.18% EPS surprise (actual 0.3 vs est 0.19). Market cap $2,443,938,560, sector Industrials.

  47. 2026-05-27 21:18:32 UTCAPPSBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: APPS reported earnings 2026-05-26 with 88.24% EPS surprise (actual 0.16 vs est 0.09). Market cap $800,931,520, sector Technology.

  48. 2026-05-21 21:12:52 UTCASPIBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ASPI reported earnings 2026-05-20 with 82.14% EPS surprise (actual -0.05 vs est -0.28). Market cap $650,920,832, sector Basic Materials.

  49. 2026-05-19 21:09:26 UTCAGYSBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: AGYS reported earnings 2026-05-18 with 26.72% EPS surprise (actual 0.63 vs est 0.5). Market cap $2,218,865,152, sector Technology.

  50. 2026-05-13 21:12:10 UTCALHBUY$200.0000SUBMITTED

    PEAD: ALH reported earnings 2026-05-12 with 16.81% EPS surprise (actual 0.31 vs est 0.27). Market cap $4,979,719,680, sector Consumer Cyclical.

Lifecycle Events

2 events
  1. 2026-04-23 19:08:47 UTCRESUMEDtransition: proposed→active
  2. 2026-04-23 19:08:46 UTCFIREDtransition: none→proposedcontract_path: /Users/joshuagafni/Documents/Janeway/Repositories.nosync/janeway/signals/pead.yamlcontract_version: 1

References