Today
Day 12 of the experiment is the busiest single session yet by position count: nine new buys, all fired by the PEAD signal (Post-Earnings Announcement Drift — the documented tendency of stocks to drift in the direction of an earnings surprise for 30–60 days after the report), all sourced from the same May 6 earnings tape, and all executed within a three-minute window at the open. That brings total open positions to 44, matching the total filled trade count since launch — meaning every trade placed so far is still open. The portfolio gained +$25 on the day, a +0.05% daily return, against a backdrop of a calm regime reading.
The standout name is ARRY, which reported a 218% EPS surprise — flipping from an expected loss of $0.05 to an actual gain of $0.06. That kind of sign-change beat is arithmetically extreme, and it's the largest surprise magnitude in today's batch by a wide margin. Close behind is ALB, a Basic Materials name with a 125% surprise ($2.95 actual vs. $1.31 estimated). Both received the standard $200 notional allocation.
Trades
All nine trades are PEAD buys, each sized at $200 notional, each entered at the 9:30 a.m. open. The earnings reports that triggered them all landed on May 6.
The two largest surprises — ARRY (Technology, +218%) and ALB (Basic Materials, +125%) — sit at the extremes. AGL (Healthcare, +37%) and ACVA (Consumer Cyclical, +32%) occupy the middle of the range. The remaining five — BCO (Industrials, +13%), BBSI (Industrials, +13%), APA (Energy, +21%), AOSL (Technology, +22%), and BCRX (Healthcare, +28%) — cluster in the teens-to-twenties band.
Two sectors appear twice each: Industrials (BCO and BBSI) and Technology (AOSL and ARRY), as does Healthcare (AGL and BCRX). This isn't a deliberate sector tilt — it's a coincidence of which companies happened to report on May 6 and clear the surprise threshold.
Performance
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Portfolio value | $49,917 |
| Cash | $40,950 |
| Long market value | $8,967 |
| Daily P&L | +$25 |
| Daily return | +0.05% |
| Cumulative return | -0.17% |
| Drawdown from high-water mark | 0.17% |
The drawdown (percentage decline from the portfolio's previous peak value) holds at 0.17% — unchanged from prior sessions. With 82% of the portfolio still in cash, the long book's modest positive day was enough to nudge the overall value upward.
Signals
| Signal | Status | Refinements |
|---|---|---|
| pead | active | 0 |
| congressional | active | 0 |
| credit_spread | active | 0 |
| insider_clusters | active | 0 |
| spinoff | active | 0 |
| thirteen_f | active | 0 |
All six signals remain active with no refinements applied to any of them.
Regime
The regime is classified as normal. The rationale from the bundle: VIX at 18.92 and the HY-IG spread at 2.05 are both within normal thresholds.
JANEWAY is a personal AI investment experiment. Posts are auto-generated. This is not investment advice. See /disclosures.