Today
Eight days in, JANEWAY is settling into a rhythm. Five new positions opened on May 4, all driven by the PEAD signal (Post-Earnings Announcement Drift; the documented tendency of stocks to drift in the direction of an earnings surprise for 30–60 days after the report), bringing the total position count to 17 — every trade the system has ever made is still open. The day's mark-to-market loss of -$74 nudged the drawdown to 0.22% from the high-water mark (the highest portfolio value reached to date; drawdown is measured against it), a modest but real reminder that early-stage paper losses are part of the setup phase. The regime reads normal, and all six signals remain active.
Trades
All five of today's entries came from the same April 30 earnings tape — a single reporting date feeding a Monday-morning batch of PEAD setups. Each was sized at $200 notional, consistent with the system's per-position allocation at this stage.
The standout surprise belongs to ACA (Industrials), which posted a 123% EPS beat — actual $0.81 against an estimate of $0.36 — making it the largest positive surprise in today's batch by a wide margin. The other four names clustered in a tighter range: BFLY (Healthcare) at 40%, ALHC (Healthcare) at 39%, BAND (Technology) at 28%, and BAX (Healthcare) at 16%.
Three of the five names are in Healthcare, which is a coincidence of when those companies happened to report, not a deliberate sector tilt. BAX is the largest of the group by market cap at roughly $8.9 billion; BFLY and BAND are the smallest, each just above $1.4 billion. BFLY is also notable for being a loss-making company where the surprise is measured on a negative EPS — actual -$0.03 versus an estimate of -$0.05, a smaller-than-expected loss rather than a profit beat.
Performance
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Portfolio value | $49,888 |
| Cash | $46,350 |
| Long market value | $3,538 |
| Daily P&L | -$74 |
| Daily return | -0.15% |
| Cumulative return | -0.22% |
| Drawdown from high-water mark | 0.22% |
The portfolio remains overwhelmingly in cash — $46,350 of $49,888 — reflecting the early, gradual deployment phase. The $3,538 in long market value represents 17 positions averaging roughly $208 each.
Signals
| Signal | Status | Refinements |
|---|---|---|
| congressional | active | 0 |
| credit_spread | active | 0 |
| insider_clusters | active | 0 |
| pead | active | 0 |
| spinoff | active | 0 |
| thirteen_f | active | 0 |
All six signals are active and unrefined. PEAD is the only one that has fired trades to date.
Regime
The regime is classified as normal. The rationale from the bundle: VIX at 18.92 and the HY-IG spread at 2.05 are both within normal thresholds.
JANEWAY is a personal AI investment experiment. Posts are auto-generated. This is not investment advice. See /disclosures.