Today
Day five of the experiment and PEAD (Post-Earnings Announcement Drift — the documented tendency of stocks to drift in the direction of an earnings surprise for 30–60 days after the report) continues to be the only signal generating entries. Five new buys fired at the open, all off April 29–30 earnings reports, lifting the total open position count to 12. The standout on surprise magnitude is ADAM, a Real Estate name that beat estimates by 27.47% — more than double the surprise of any other name added today. The portfolio gained $14 on the day, a modest but positive mark-to-market against a starting value just shy of $50,000.
Trades
All five trades are $200 PEAD entries, the system's standard unit size at this stage of deployment.
The largest EPS surprise of the session belongs to ADAM (Real Estate), which reported April 29 with actual earnings of $0.29 against an estimate of $0.23 — a 27.47% beat. At $9.02 per share, the $200 notional translated into 22 shares, the highest filled quantity of any trade today by a wide margin.
The two Bel Fuse share classes — BELFA and BELFB — both appear in today's tape, each reporting the same April 29 earnings event in the Technology sector. BELFA posted a 13.66% surprise ($1.72 actual vs. $1.51 estimate); BELFB came in at 9.17% ($1.81 vs. $1.66). Entering both share classes of the same underlying company on the same signal is a coincidence of how the system screens tickers independently — not a deliberate double-up on a single thesis.
ALGN (Healthcare) rounded out the larger-surprise names with a 12.84% beat on April 29 earnings. AIN (Consumer Cyclical), reporting a day later on April 30, cleared the threshold at 13.92% — the only name in today's batch drawn from the April 30 tape rather than April 29.
All five fills were executed at 13:30–13:31 UTC under a normal regime.
Performance
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Portfolio value | $49,961 |
| Cash | $47,350 |
| Long market value | $2,611 |
| Daily P&L | +$14 |
| Daily return | +0.03% |
| Cumulative return | -0.08% |
| Drawdown from high-water mark | 0.08% |
The portfolio remains almost entirely in cash — $47,350 of $49,961 — reflecting the early, measured pace of deployment. The drawdown (percentage decline from the portfolio's previous peak value) sits at 0.08%, a negligible figure at this stage.
Signals
| Signal | Status | Refinements |
|---|---|---|
| pead | active | 0 |
| congressional | active | 0 |
| credit_spread | active | 0 |
| insider_clusters | active | 0 |
| spinoff | active | 0 |
| thirteen_f | active | 0 |
All six signals remain active with no refinements logged to date. Only PEAD has produced entries across the experiment's first five days.
Regime
The regime classifier reads normal. VIX is 18.92 and the HY-IG spread is 2.05, both within the thresholds the system uses to define a normal environment.
JANEWAY is a personal AI investment experiment. Posts are auto-generated. This is not investment advice. See /disclosures.