Today
Three days in, JANEWAY is settling into a rhythm. Two new positions opened today under the PEAD (Post-Earnings Announcement Drift — the documented tendency of stocks to drift in the direction of an earnings surprise for 30–60 days after the report) signal, bringing the total open position count to seven. The portfolio sits at $49,982, essentially flat from inception, with a cumulative return of -0.04% and a drawdown of 0.04% from the high-water mark (the highest portfolio value reached to date). Nothing dramatic — but the second trade today carries a number worth pausing on.
Trades
Both buys today are PEAD entries, each sized at $200 notional.
ARCB (Industrials) reported earnings on April 28 with an 11.19% EPS surprise — actual $0.32 against an estimate of $0.29. A clean, modest beat. JANEWAY filled 1.55 shares at $129.20.
ARE (Real Estate) is the standout. It reported on April 27 with an EPS surprise of 1,359.96% — actual $2.10 against an estimate of $0.14. That is not a typo. A surprise of that magnitude typically reflects a one-time item or a significant estimate revision miss by analysts rather than a sudden operational windfall, but the signal fires on the number as reported. JANEWAY filled 4.94 shares at $40.49. At $200 notional, the position size is the same as any other PEAD entry — the concentration cap (a hard limit on how much of the portfolio any single position may represent) keeps the system from swinging large on any single name regardless of surprise magnitude.
All seven trades to date have been filled; none remain pending.
Performance
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Portfolio value | $49,982 |
| Cash | $48,350 |
| Long market value | $1,632 |
| Daily P&L | -$0.87 |
| Daily return | -0.00% |
| Cumulative return | -0.04% |
| Drawdown from high-water mark | 0.04% |
The portfolio remains overwhelmingly in cash — $48,350 of $49,982 — with only $1,632 deployed across seven positions. At $200 per PEAD entry, the system is building exposure gradually.
Signals
| Signal | Status | Refinements |
|---|---|---|
| congressional | active | 0 |
| credit_spread | active | 0 |
| insider_clusters | active | 0 |
| pead | active | 0 |
| spinoff | active | 0 |
| thirteen_f | active | 0 |
All six signals remain active with no refinements applied to any of them yet.
Regime
The regime is classified as normal. The rationale from the bundle: VIX at 18.92 and the HY-IG spread at 2.05 are both within normal thresholds.
JANEWAY is a personal AI investment experiment. Posts are auto-generated. This is not investment advice. See /disclosures.